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JSRI 2008, 4(2): 227-238 Back to browse issues page
Predicting Population for Male of Rural Area in Bangladesh
Rafiqul Islam *
, rafique-pops@yahoo.com
Abstract:   (2604 Views)

 In this paper the population for male of rural area in Bangladesh is predicted by using the geometric growth rate method. The predictions are computed in a three-step procedure. In the first step, the prediction are computed using an exponentail model estimated by Quasi-Newton method for the years 1974, 1981, 1991, and 2001 using the package STATISTICA. Using the cross-validation predictive power (CVPP) criterion and coefficient of determination, the shrinkage coefficient $lambada$  is constructed. The shrinkage coefficient determines the adequacy of the first step prediction. In the second step, these predicted values are used to estimate the growth rate for different age groups by using the geometric growth arte method. In the final step, considering the population for male of rural area in Bangladesh for the census year 2001 as the base population and using the estimated geometric growth rate of the second step estimation, the predictions for the male population of rural area of Bangladesh are estimated for the years 2002 through 2031 by applying geometric growth rate method.

Keywords: Male rural population, exponential model, geometric growth rate method, cross-validity predictive power (CVPP), coefficient of determination, shrinkage, F -test.
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Type of Study: Research | Subject: General
Received: 2016/02/20 | Accepted: 2016/02/20 | Published: 2016/02/20
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Islam R. Predicting Population for Male of Rural Area in Bangladesh. JSRI. 2008; 4 (2) :227-238
URL: http://jsri.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-173-en.html

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Volume 4, Issue 2 (3-2008) Back to browse issues page
مجله‌ی پژوهش‌های آماری ایران Journal of Statistical Research of Iran JSRI
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